Draft Strategy — Pick 3
Your Pick Cadence — Snake Draft
Pick 3 means you miss the top 2 but land a true elite player. The real challenge is the long wait between rounds (e.g. picks 3→18, 23→38). Plan 2 picks ahead each time.
Rd 1
#3
Rd 2
#18
Rd 3
#23
Rd 4
#38
Rd 5
#43
Rd 6
#58
Rd 7
#63
Rd 8
#78
Rd 9
#83
Rd 10
#98
Rd 11
#103
Rd 12
#118
Rd 13
#123
Rd 14
#138
Rd 15
#143
Rd 16
#158
Rd 17
#163
Rd 18
#178
Rd 19
#183
Rd 20
#198
Rd 21
#203
Rd 22
#218
Rd 23
#223
Rd 24
#238
Value Picks — We Rank Higher Than the Market
These players are being drafted later than our z-score/FAR model says they should be. Target them in later rounds rather than reaching early.
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Avoid Reaching — Market Overvalues These Players
The ESPN/ADP consensus takes these players significantly earlier than our model says they're worth. Let them go and find better value elsewhere.
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Value Picks by Position
Best undervalued player at each position — our rank vs live ESPN ADP. Edge = picks you gain by waiting.
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Positional Timing
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Category Priorities
Batting
TB
11.4%
HR
10.8%
R
10.0%
RBI
9.9%
H
8.3%
SB
4.6%
BB
3.5%
AVG
3.4%
Pitching
W
7.2%
K
7.0%
WHIP
6.2%
QS
6.0%
ERA
5.7%
L
3.3%
HD
2.5%
SV
0.2%
SV (0.2%) is the weakest predictor in this league by far. Do not reach for closers.
Key Principles
- TB & HR first. The two most predictive stats in this league. Prioritize power hitters in rounds 1-4.
- Pick 3 advantage. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani likely gone at 1-2. Juan Soto / Bobby Witt Jr. are the most likely targets. Both project elite TB+HR.
- Delay closers. SV predicts wins less than any other category (0.2%). Let others reach for closers; pick one late.
- Cal Raleigh is worth a reach. Elite catcher bats are rare. His z-score and FAR both show genuine starter-level value. Round 4-5 is not too early.
- W and K matter more than ERA. Wins (7.2%) and strikeouts (7.0%) are the top pitching categories. ERA (5.7%) matters less than people think.
- Trust the FAR column. When two players have similar z-scores, the one with higher FAR is harder to replace from the waiver wire.